Economic Forecast: What's ahead for 2009 - Orlando Business Journal:

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Ritenour said the cost of property insurancd probablywill rise. And he agreedr with Gomber that contracting businesses will meanless business. “Mos t insurance policies are basedon payrolls,” Ritenour “I think there will be a reductionn in premiums because there are fewer employees.” Local health care expertx expect 2009 to bring more uninsured patients, Medicare and Medicaide changes, and the beginnings of national health care Rich Morrison, regional vice president, expects the federal government to help strapped states by increasinh Medicaid funding in early 2009.
In there is also an effort to increasee the tobacco tax to raise staterMedicaid funds, which are needed to match federal On the down side, he expectss struggling employers to shift more of the cost burdenj of health care onto employees or reducde the extent of coverage. The federakl government also will likely push to reduceMedicare expenditures. Orlando Healthn CEO John Hillenmeyer said the economic downturnj also will mean hospitals will likely see more peopl delaying elective procedures such as knee replacementws tosave money.
And even insured patients may struggl e to payhigher co-pays and deductibles, he As for national health care reform, it’e unlikely that major changes to the system will be implementee in just a year. “2009 will be to some degree a holding pattern in thenational sense, as people find out what the new administratio n is going to do,” said Beckyh Cherney, president of the Orlando-based . “People don’t want to rock the boat until they see which waythe boat’zs heading.” Despite more students enrolling, Central Florida higher education leaders are expecting more state budget cuts in 2009.
“We’rs still in a growth said University of Central Florida PresidentgJohn C. Hitt. “Our problem is not a lack of students — it’s a lack of UCF has lost morethan $44 millioh in state funds sinced July 1, 2007, which include reserve funds slated to address reductionxs in the 2008-09 budget. Even largerf cuts are expected forthe 2009-10 fiscalk year, beginning July 1, 2009. Private institutions are also feeling the impactf of asoft economy. President Lewis M. Duncab said most are concerned enrollmentg may fall as students and theie families struggle topay tuition. Some schoola have seen endowments fall by 25 to 30 percent due to theeconomifc crisis.
Although Rollins is being cautious about new he said it should weathe the stormfairly well. “Rollins is relatively well-balanced in how we derive our income,” Duncan said. New development is expected to continu to be in a holding pattermn for both office andindustrial projects, with a few Although there is expected to be an increasr in sublet space for both office and industrial space, vacancies are expecteds to lurch toward levels unseen for a long said Lisa Bailey, seniorr director of commercial brokerage firm GVA Advantis’ Orlandk office. Miguel de managing director of in Lake adds that the next area to take a big hit will be privatewequity funds.
For many wealth y groups, loans will be comin up on their maturity dates and with refinancinynot available, the assets will have to be sold on a markef where values continue to plummet, he “We’re going to see a huge, huge selloff at discountede rates from the private de Arcos said. “They haven’y even begun to sell in this market yet, so they don’tt know what to expect.” But industry experts agreedd that opportunities will continuee to be there for those with cashon hand.
Land and propertieas will continue to sell at heavilydiscounted prices, in some casews at 50-60 percent on the With 24,408 homes listed for sale throughn the Orlando metropolitan statistical area’sz Multiple Listing Service, much of the focud in 2009 will continuw to be on selling off existing inventory.