Experts: Crisis over, recession not - The Business Review (Albany):

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That’s the latest economic outlook for according to the state Departmentof Revenue’s quarterlg report, released July 3. The nationa l economy has been in recession for the past18 months, as monitoresd by the National Bureau of Economic The recession continues to be but the gross domestic product is expected to begin growth in the seconsd half of the year. The nationa unemployment rate is likely to peakat 10.3 percenft in the first half of 2010. Wisconsin remains in a with jobs losttotaling 143,000 since Decembef 2007, the state Department of Revenue report said. The current outlook callds fora “peak-to-trough” job loss of 155,300, or 5.
4 percenty of total employment. Wisconsin’s latest seasonally adjustedr unemployment rate stoodat 8.9 percent in May, more than doubls of what it was a year ago, but stil l less than the national rate of 9.4 The education and health services sector was the only privatw sector posting year-over-year job gains in the past threw months. It is the only sector that is expecter to showemployment growth, at 2.5 percent, in 2009. Followinvg is a synopsis of industries’ expectations for the rest of 2009 andearlyt 2010.
Banks in southeast Wisconsin may have sustainedx the worst of thehits they’l l take in this recession, but that doesn’tf mean all will be near well for the balance of 2009. Analystx said banks already recorded most of their consume r credit problemsincluding mortgages, home equity loans, crediyt cards and auto loans. The nation’ds largest banks survived the credity crisis that threatened to lock credity markets and shookcustomer confidence. However, banks are just startin g to feel an increasre in problems with commercial real estatd andbusiness loans. And they’rew still working through existinggproblem loans.
“We’ve got a bottom in the industry, but there’ds no recovery,” said John Rickmeier, presidentr of , Hartland. Experts predict loan demand will remaih weak as consumers and businesses deal with high unemploymentf and a slowhousing market. Recovery will be slow and Wisconsin banks are in better shape than thosse in manyother states. Only a few face closintg or a forced sale, experts Commercial lending activity will remain Financially healthy banks aremaking loans, but conservatively and only to stron customers, said Emory Ireland, a banking attorney with , Milwaukee.
The positivs news, relatively speaking, for the rest of 2009 is that increase s in bad loans will dissipate and saidDavid George, analyst with Robert W. Bairdd & Co. Inc. in St. Louis. Georgwe believes the commercial loanproblems won’t be as pronounced as the consumedr and residential woes. Southeast Wisconsin’s construction industry is a tale of the haveeand have-nots. Road builders and bridgwe contractors are baskingin $692 million in federalk stimulus that is putting Operating Engineerd and Teamsters members back to work after nearly two years of tougjh times. Inc.
, Waukesha, has been awarded the most moneyh of any construction firm in the statee after the first three roundx of American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Zignego was the low bidder on two largde highwayconstruction projects, valued at $137.5 million, or nearlh 20 percent of the total stimulus money allocated to Wisconsin roads and bridges.